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中美应共同谋求世界权力天平“新的均衡”(8)

无论中国政府是否相信奥巴马政府关于美国乐意接受中国成为一个对等大国的说辞,中国领导人面临的战略选择都是清晰的:既可以谋求地区主导地位并通过暴力对抗的方式将美国赶出亚太,也可以与美国开展合作并通过维持亚太地区权力均势避免恶性战略争斗,以确保双方之间的和平竞争。第一种选项至少在可以预见的未来无疑是不现实的。取得地区主导权从长期看或许会是中国的终极目标,但不会被视作中国在21世纪前期需要认真考虑的目标,这是由当前美国在亚太地区的存在和影响力决定的,也是因为该地区各国力量的消长变化仍在继续界定中国的权力范围。中国的日益强大已经促使周边国家采取了一些制衡行动,包括重新与美国结盟,在这种情况下,中国的实际行动以及其他国家对中国意图的认知尤为重要。尽管中国必须坚定地捍卫其真正的核心利益,但是在各种外交与安全政策上(包括与他国的领土争端上)继续保持战略克制,预防性地消除其他国家的制衡动机,绝对符合中国利益。在地区环境中被孤立于对中国没有好处。

事实上,二战后美国创建和领导的国际体系以及美国在亚太安全中的角色,为经济全球化和亚太稳定提供了重要支撑。虽然中国政府对其中的一些规则可能并不满意,也想在制定和修订规则的过程中享有更大的话语权,但中国还是从中获益匪浅。尽管中国对美国在亚洲这块本国安身之地增强针对自己的军事和战略布局感到不安,中国也仍然是过去几十年中美国军事存在所塑造的地区稳定的受益者。作为现实主义者,中国领导人最终还是会认清权力对比的现实状况,那就是中美两国都不可能独自成为地区主导力量,权力均衡是维护地区和平与稳定的唯一出路。虽然美国维持其亚太霸权角色变得日益困难,但中国在崛起为一个全球大国的道路上也仍然面临着来自国内外的各种巨大挑战,很难在亚洲奉行扩张主义政策。中国最大的挑战并非来自美国,而是来自本国内部。由于深刻而令人担忧的内部原因,中国也是一个脆弱的崛起国。为确保未来的崛起,实现中国梦,它必须首先处理好包括腐败、权力滥用和社会不公等在内的各种国内问题。在中国解决这些国内难题之前,其未来崛起前景仍面临着不确定性。正是从这个角度出发,中国国家主席习近平才一再强调“太平洋两岸有足够空间容纳中美两个大国”。65 正是从自身利益出发,中国努力通过构建“新型大国关系”来稳定同美国的关系,而这也正是美国的利益所在,所以,奥巴马政府对习近平的努力进行了积极回应。

注释

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2 He Yafei, "The Trust Deficit: How the U.S. 'pivot' to Asia looks from Beijing",  Foreign Policy, May 13, 2013, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/05/13/how_china_sees_the_us_pivot_to_asia.

3 Jia Qingguo, "Learning to Live with the Hegemon: Evolution of China's Policy toward the US since the End of the Cold War", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 14, no. 44, August 2005, p. 395.

4 Liu Jiafei, "Sino-US Relations and building a Harmonious World", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 18, no. 60, June 2009, p. 479.

5 Jonas Parello-Plesner, "The G 2: no good for China and for world governance",  PacNet #31A, April 30, 2009.

6 "Wen rejects allegation of China, US monopolizing world affairs in future", Xinhua, May 21, 2009.

7 一项统计表明:“自1500年以来,崛起国与支配国的15次遭遇和竞争中,有11次的结果是战争。” Graham T. Allison Jr., "Obama and Xi Must Think Broadly to Avoid a Classic Trap", New York Times, June 6, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/opinion/obama-and-xi-must-think-broadly-to-avoid-a-classic-trap.html?emc=tnt&tntemail0=y&_r=0.

8 Suisheng Zhao, "Shaping the Regional Context of China's Rise: How the Obama Administration brought back Hedge in its Engagement with China", Journal of Contemporary China, 21:75, 2012, p. 386.

9 James B. Steinberg, "China's Arrival: The long March to Global Power", Keynote Speech at Center for New America Security, September 24, 2009, http://www.cnas.org/files/multimedia/documents/Deputy%20Secretary%20James%20Steinberg's%20September%2024,%202009%20Keynote%20Address%20Transcript.pdf.

10 Josh Rogin, "The end of the concept of 'strategic reassurance'?", Foreign Policy, November 6, 2009, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/11/06/the_end_of_the_concept_of_strategic_reassurance.

11 David M. Lampton, "A New Type of Major-Power Relationship: Seeking a Durable Foundation for U.S.-China Ties", Asia Policy,  no.16, July 2013, p. 52.

12 Brad Glosserman, "A 'new type of great power relations'? Hardly", PacNet #40 Monday, June 10, 2013.

13 John Chan, "China Seeks 'New Type of Great Power Relations', Beijing will not Challenge US Global Dominance", Global Research, June 10, 2013, http://www.globalresearch.ca/china-seeks-new-type-of-great-power-relations-china-will-not-challenge-us-global-dominance/5338462.

14 中国社会科学院中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心:“构建新型大国关系”, 《人民日报》, 2013年6月4日,第7 版。

15 Yang Jiechi, "Win-Win Cooperation", Washington Post, July 9, 2013, p. 13.

16 Hillary Clinton, "Remarks at the U.S. Institute of Peace China Conference", March 7, 2012, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/03/185402.htm.

17 White House News Release,  "Remarks By Tom Donilon, National Security Advisor to the President: The United States and the Asia-Pacific in 2013", March 11, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/11/remarks-tom-donilon-national-security-advisory-president-united-states-a.

18 Office of Press Secretary, The White House, "Background Conference Call by Senior Administration Officials on the President's Meetings with President Xi Jinping of China", June 4, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/04/background-conference-call-senior-administration-officials-presidents-me.

19 "Remarks by President Obama and Vice President Xi of the People's Republic of China Before Bilateral Meeting, February 2012", http://www.cfr.org/china/remarks-president-obama-vice-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-before-bilateral-meeting-february-2012/p27391.

20 田曾佩:《改革开放以来的中国外交》,北京:世界知识出版社,1993年,第6~7页。

21 谢益显:《当代中国外交史》,北京:中国青年出版社,1996年,第430页。

22 You Ji, "China and North Korea: A Fragile Relationship of Strategic Convenience", Journal of Contemporary China, vol. 10, no. 28, August 2001, p. 396.

23 Wang Yong, "China, ASEAN Stress Peace: Summit Agrees on Approach", China Daily, December 17, 1997, p.1.

24 Greg Sheridan, "China wins as 'US neglects region'", The Australian, September 3, 2007. 

25 Elizabeth Economy, "China's Rise in Southeast Asia: Implications for the United States", Journal of Contemporary China, 14:44, August 2005, p.424.

26 陈岳:“中国当前外交环境及应对”, 《现代国际关系》,2011年第11期, 第 4页。

27 Wu Xinbo, "Forging Sino-U.S, Partnership in the 21st Century: Opportunities and Challenges," Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 21, no. 75, May 2012, p. 393.

28 David F. Gordon, "A trade opportunity Washington shouldn't pass up",  Washington Post, November 10, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-trade-opportunity-washington-shouldnt-pass-up/2011/11/10/gIQA1K3t9M_story.html?sub=AR.

29 Editorial, "Hillary reinforces US-China mistrust", Global Times, September 4, 2012, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/730902.shtml.

30 Hillary Clinton, "America's Pacific Century", Foreign Policy, November 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century?page=full%23.TpQwzShztTI.email.

31 Shangri-La Security Dialogue, As Delivered by Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta, Shangri-La Hotel, Singapore, Saturday, June 02, 2012, http://www.defense.gov/speeches/speech.aspx?speechid=1681.

32 Jane Perlez, "Diplomatic Memo, Political Worries in U.S. and China Color Obama Aide's Beijing Visit", New York Times, July 25, 2012, July 25, 2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/world/asia/china-an-eager-host-to-donilon-diplomatic-memo.html?_r=1&ref=asia.

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