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走出不信任与对抗情绪的诡局(8)

——从国民感情和软硬实力转化看中日关系

核心提示: 自中华人民共和国成立以来,中日关系从感情和软硬实力互动出发,可分为三个阶段,每个阶段体现了不同特点。近年来中日关系的恶化和国民感情的遇冷,根本因素是两国硬实力在相对短时期内的转化。而从今后的趋势看,随着两国硬实力差距的进一步扩大,双方国民感情的低走将呈现长期化的特点。然而,这并不意味着两国政府可以对此置之不理。恰恰相反,如果中日双方能够拿出勇气和智慧,走出“高层政治”对抗的死胡同,会加快厘清双方在转变中的国际关系的新定位。

注释

【1】JoshuaKurlantzick, Charm Offensive: How China's Soft Power IsTransforming the World, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007.

【2】西方国际关系学界对经典现实主义的讨论,数量繁多。新作请见Kenneth Thompson and David Clinton, Politics Among Nations, New York: McGraw-Hill Education, 2005. 另见Thomas Schelling, The Strategy aof Conflict, Cambridge,MA: Harvard University Press, 1980; and Kenneth Waltz, Theory ofInternational Relations, Long Grove, IL: Waveland Press, 2010.  

【3】《以史为鉴 面向未来——新中国对抗日战争的认识与中日邦交正常化》,北京师范大学新闻网,http://news.bnu.edu.cn/ztxw/beatjapan2005/24685.htm。

【4】《论日本与中国恢复关系正常化》,《人民日报》,1954年12月30日。

【5】《毛泽东与中日友好关系》,http://news.ifeng.com/history/zhongguoxiandaishi/special/jiaokeshuzhiwai1/,2012年9月28日载于凤凰网历史专辑。

【6】中曽根康弘、伊藤隆三郎:《天地有情:五十年の戦後政治を語る》,東京:文藝春秋, 1996年,第280页。

【7】加藤紘一:《アジアの世紀の日中関係》,松村光夫,高草木光一编:《東アジア:日本が問われている》,东京:岩波书店,2007年,第57页。

【8】George WashingtonUniversity, "Remarks by the Honorable Minoru Kusuda, Former ChiefSecretary to Prime Minister Eisaku Sato" in National Security Archive ,http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/japan/kusuda.htm.

【9】Allen S. Whiting, China Eyes Japan, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press,1989.

【10】蒋立峰:《中日联合进行的舆论调查》,《日本问题》,1989年第2卷,http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-REED198902003.htm。

【11】Ezra Vogel, Japan as No. 1: Lessons for America, Hapercollins College Div.,1985.

【12】《なにがデタントのために必要か》,《読売新聞》, 1983年1月1日。

【13】于山:《平静面对日元贷款“毕业”那一天》,人民网·人民时评,http://www.people.com.cn/GB/guandian/1033/2391910.html。

【14】-【17】~中共中央档案局:《邓小平年谱:1975—1997》,北京:中央文献出版社,2004年,第407、411、1191~1193、1175页。

【18】田中均、田原総一朗:《国家と外交》,講談社, 2005年,第164页。

【19】矢吹晋:《日中誤解は迷惑に始まる:国交正常化30周年前夜の小考》,http://www.21ccs.jp/china_quarterly/China_Quarterly_01.html。

【20】具体数据论述,详见本人书籍 Japan and China as Charm Rivals: SoftPower in Regional Diplomacy, Ann Arbor, MI: University of MichiganPress, 2012, pp. 42-50.

【21】有关课题的近期研究成果,请见Zheng Wang, Never Forget National Humiliation: Historical Memory in ChinesePolitics and Foreign Relations, New York: Columbia University Press, 2014.

【22】Jing Sun, Japan and China as Charm Rivals, p. 42.

【23】屠珍:《周恩来与梅兰芳二三事》,《人物》,2008年3月,http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2008-03-19/141615181247.shtml。

【24】付颖:《中日芭蕾外交重现》,《世界新闻报》,2008年3月5日,http://www.ce.cn/culture/history/200803/05/t20080305_14734495.shtml。

Keeping Away from Distrust and Hostility

—Viewing Sino-Japanese Relations in terms of National Sentiment and the Soft and Hard Power

Sun Jing

Abstract: Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Sino-Japanese relations can be divided into three stages according to interaction of people's feelings and soft and hard power, with each stage having different characteristics. In recent years, the Sino-Japanese relations have deteriorated and people's feelings in the two countries cooled, the main reason is the switch of their position in terms of hard power in a relatively short time. Looking into the future, with the further widening of the gap between their hard power, the national sentiment in both China and Japan will be low for long. However, this does not mean that the two governments can ignore it. On the contrary, if the two sides can have courage and wisdom, get out of the dead end of "top-level" political hostility, it will help quickly clarify their new position in the changing international relations.

Keywords: national sentiment, soft power, hard power, Sino-Japanese relations, militarism

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