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Impact of the US Economic Policy Shift on the Global Economy
Chen Jiyong Liu Weiping
Abstract: The economic policy framework of the Trump government has been basically formed. Its core content is to "globally contract" economic and trade protection policy and "put America first" in the domestic economic policy. This policy framework will have a significant impact on the US economy, the global economy and Sino-US economic and trade relations. First of all, Trump's "US priority" large-scale fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, expansion of infrastructure investment and financial deregulation will have a great impact on the US short-term economic development. Second, Trump's "global contraction" of economic and trade protection policies will have an important effect on the global economic development, especially international trade, international finance, international investment and regional economic integration. At the same time, for China, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages; it will provide China with certain development room in the Asia-Pacific region and even around the globe, especially for China's "OBAOR" program. Third, in case that the EU, Russia, Japan, India, South Korea and the Trump government reach an agreement against China, it is recommended to actively use the existing international exchange platforms; create ties with the Trump government and the key members of his team; guide China's financial institutions, especially the development financial institutions and infrastructure construction enterprises; build an effective new Sino-US economic and trade cooperation pattern; and promote the healthy development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.
Keywords: Trump, contraction strategy, geopolitical, trade protection, global economy
陈继勇，武汉大学美加经济研究所所长、教授、博导，中国美国经济学会会长。研究方向为世界经济、国际投资、国际金融与贸易。主要著作有《中国互利共赢对外开放战略》《美国“双赤字”与世界经济失衡》《国际商务与经贸人才培养新模式——创新与实践》等。刘卫平，国家开发银行研究院教授。
