参考文献
［美］鲍威尔，2018，《“双低”时期的货币政策》，《中国金融》，第23期。
［美］扎卡里·卡拉贝尔（Zachary Karabell），2015，《当经济指标统治我们》，叶家兴等译，台北：台湾左岸文化出版社，第179页。
［美］布拉德福特·德隆（J. Bradford DeLong），2019，《菲利普斯曲线冬眠，通货膨胀猛虎难重临》，香港《信报》，10月31日。
［英］黛安娜·科伊尔（Diane Coyle），2017，《极简GDP史》，杭州：浙江人民出版社。
《世界经济展望》，2020，《初步企稳，复苏乏力？》， https://www.imf.org/zh/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/01/20/weo-update-january2020，国际货币基金组织官网，访问时间：2020年2月6日。
［美］约翰·莫尔丁（John Mauldin），2019，《撑现代货币理论，引爆冲突严峻》，香港《信报》，6月13日。
［美］约翰·莫尔丁（John Mauldin），2020，《CPI难反映百姓通货膨胀之苦》，香港《信报》，1月30日。
乐施会，《2018年全球财富不平等报告》，https://wenku.baidu.com/view/cbb7e5c464ce0508763231126edb6f1afe007110.html，百度文库，访问时间：2020年2月16日。
《中国家庭金融调查专题——中国居民杠杆率和家庭消费信贷问题研究报告》，https://chfs.swufe.edu.cn/thinktank/resultsreport.html?id=2380，西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心官网，访问时间：2020年2月14日。
张成思，2019，《金融化的逻辑与反思》，《经济研究》，第11期。
Eric Basmajian, "Lacy Hunt On The 6 Characteristics of An Overindebted Economy", https://seekingalpha.com/article/4243017-lacy-hunt-on-6-characteristics-of-overindebted-economy.
Steve Blumenthal, 2018, "On My Radar: You Get What You Need", December 21, https://www.cmgwealth.com/ri/on-my-radar-you-get-what-you-need/.
Alberto Cavallo, More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors, http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/Cavallo_Alberto_J2_More%20Amazon%20Effects-Online%20Competition%20and%20Pricing%20Behaviors_61ab3273-d446-4dd5-9e71-469c54c46662.pdf.
Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996, "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions", Economics and Finance (2) 7, June, https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf.
George Friedman, 2020, The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, Published by Doubleday.
Campbell Harvey, 1986, Recovering Expectations of Consumption Growth from an Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates, University of Chicago, https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.htm.
Peter Hooper; Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?", NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/25792.html.
IIF, "Global Debt Monitor High debt may exacerbate climate risk", November 14, 2019, http://files.clickdimensions.com/iifcom-i7nn/files/globaldebtmonitor_november_vf.pdf.
Phillips, A.W.,1958, "The relation between unemployment and the rate of change in money wage rate in the United Kingdom 1861-1975", Economica, 25, pp. 283-99.
William Strauss and Neil Howe, 1997, The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny, Broadway Books, 1997.
Tan Kai Xian and Will Denyer, "Looking through To US Inflation", https://research.gavekal.com/search-result?search=&fr=&to=&au%5B%5D=16476&au%5B%5D=8902&selectItemau%5B%5D=16476&selectItemau%5B%5D=8902&re%5B12%5D=12&items_per_page=.
Global Economic Growth at a Crossroad in the Post-pandemic Era
—General Analysis Based on Economics
Yi Xianrong
Abstract: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy was basically stable; the probability of short-term economic recession was not high, but the momentum for a full recovery was weak. Although low growth, low inflation and low interest rate are normal, they are only a kind of representation resulting from evaluating the rapidly developing digital economy with the traditional theories, measurement models and statistical indicators. We should refrain from over-estimating these indexes and reconstruct an index system more suitable for the era of digital economy. The excessive credit expansion policies adopted by the central banks of different countries will help to stimulate the short-term economic growth and avoid the overnight collapse of the massive debts, but they cannot guarantee a country's sustainable economic growth in the long run. Instead, they are the root cause of the outbreak of financial crisis and economic recession. Meanwhile, the outbreak of the pandemic broke this normal, and the global economy will face recession, even a possible great depression. For this, Each Country's government has taken traditional large-scale fiscal and financial rescue measures, but it is difficult to stop the trend of global economic recession. The countries should prepare for the worst and take corresponding measures promptly, so as to avert peril in the future.
Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, unlimited QE, Japanese disease, excessive credit expansion, Phillips curve
【作者简介】易宪容，青岛大学财富管理研究院院长，青岛互联网金融研究院院长，教授、博导。研究方向为制度经济学、现代金融理论、中国金融、国际金融、房地产金融、金融科技。主要著作有《金融市场基础性制度的理论研究》《中国居住正义的理论研究》《中国利率市场化改革的理论研究》《流动性与金融危机的理论研究》《金融市场的合约分析》等。
