【摘要】城乡收入差距居高不下是全球性难题，我国新型城镇化改革成果能否公平惠及不同人群和地区，进而缩小城乡居民收入差距，是一个备受关注的问题。本文借助三批新型城镇化综合试点提供的准自然实验背景，基于2012年至2019年2805个县级行政区的面板数据和多期双重差分模型，使用插补估计方法对政策效应进行评估后发现，在这一较短时间段内，新型城镇化改革对试点县级行政区的城乡人均可支配收入差距有正向影响。产业结构转型升级加快、地方政府宏观调控力度加大、非农固定资产投资占比提高、县域耕地面积减少以及由于户口性质转换导致的纯统计意义上的城乡收入水平变化，是该影响的重要作用机制。异质性分析显示，中部和西部试点地区的城乡收入差距在政策作用下显著缩小，东部地区则相反，这一差异表明新型城镇化改革向中西部倾斜的政策举措有利于缩小城乡差距。
【关键字】城镇化 城乡收入差距 城乡融合发展 新型城镇化改革 多期双重差分模型
【中图分类号】F299.2/F124.7 【文献标识码】A
【DOI】10.16619/j.cnki.rmltxsqy.2024.16.011
【作者简介】清华大学经济管理学院 侯婉薇
注释
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责 编／桂 琰 美 编∕周群英
New-type Urbanization Reform and the Urban-rural Income Gap
—An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data from County-level Administrative Regions
Hou Wanwei
Abstract: Amid the global challenges of the persistent income gap between urban and rural areas, a key issue is whether the achievements of China's new-type urbanization reform can equitably benefit different populations and regions and narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents. This paper, leveraging the quasi-natural experiment provided by three batches of new-type urbanization comprehensive pilot programs and using panel data from 2,805 county-level administrative regions from 2012 to 2019 along with a multi-period difference-in-differences model, evaluates the policy effects using the imputation estimation method. The findings indicate that within this relatively short time frame, the new-type urbanization reform widened the urban-rural income gap in the pilot regions. The main mechanisms of this impact include accelerated industrial transformation and upgrading, increased macroeconomic regulation by local governments, a higher proportion of investment in non-agricultural fixed assets, reduced arable land in county areas, and variations in urban and rural income levels by statistics due to the conversion of household registration status. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the urban-rural income gap in the central and western pilot areas has significantly narrowed under the policy impact, while the opposite is true in the eastern counterparts. This difference suggests that the policy measure of the new-type urbanization reform, in which the central and western regions are gaining more attention and support, is conducive to narrowing the urban-rural gap.
Keywords: urbanization, urban-rural income gap, integrated urban-rural development, new-type urbanization reform, multi-period difference-in-differences model
